Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | MEM -111 ARK -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +5 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -4.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (+12.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -2.1 (+2.9) | 153.5 (+9.5) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -3.1 (+1.9) | 146.0 (+17.0) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -3.0 (+2.0) | 148.2 (+14.8) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -3.0 (+2.0) | 150.8 (+12.2) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 7-6 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 79.8 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#49) | 3.6 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.93 (#15) | -0.80 (#248) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.88 (#11) | -1.83 (#277) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#39) | 0.388 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 40.2% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 36.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.1% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 65.7% | 77.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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