Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | BUT +188 FAU -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAU +5 | 177 | Lost |
| Massey | BUT -6.9 (-11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.0 (+41.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUT -2.1 (-7.1) | 138.2 (+38.8) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUT -4.1 (-9.1) | 137.9 (+39.1) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BUT -4.5 (-9.5) | 140.0 (+37.0) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUT -4.1 (-9.1) | 140.8 (+36.2) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUT | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 14-4 |
| Home | 12-6 | 13-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 82.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 11.4 (#25) | 4.5 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#156) | -0.75 (#245) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#171) | -1.23 (#250) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#75) | 0.496 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUT | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.6% | 44.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 76.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.5% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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