Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -138 VILL +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +2 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -0.7 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.9 (+19.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -0.1 (-2.1) | 142.2 (+21.8) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -0.1 (-1.9) | 142.1 (+21.9) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -0.1 (-1.9) | 141.8 (+22.2) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -0.1 (-2.1) | 142.3 (+21.7) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-1 | 10-6 |
| Away | 8-2 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 7-5 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 11.3 (#26) | 10.6 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#59) | 0.83 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.97 (#80) | 1.31 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#148) | 0.590 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 32.0% | 31.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.7% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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