Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | ARIZ -213 MSU +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +6 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -16.4 (-10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.9 (+8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -9.5 (-3.5) | 139.6 (+2.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -10.2 (-4.2) | 139.5 (+2.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -11.3 (-5.3) | 139.2 (+2.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -9.2 (-3.2) | 143.6 (-1.6) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 10-10 |
| Home | 15-1 | 14-4 |
| Away | 7-4 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.1 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 25.2 (#2) | 8.8 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.37 (#10) | -0.18 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.28 (#9) | 0.10 (#176) |
| RPI | 0.638 (#36) | 0.523 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.4% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 41.5% | 26.3% |
| REB / G | 49.2 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.8% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 44.2% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 39.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 82.2% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.7% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.