Betting Lines
| Spread | TULN -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | TULN -250 CAL +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TULN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TULN +3 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | TULN -12.9 (-9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.1 (+8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TULN -9.9 (-6.9) | 152.4 (+12.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TULN -8.6 (-5.6) | 150.0 (+15.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TULN -9.9 (-6.9) | 150.9 (+14.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TULN -9.7 (-6.7) | 150.9 (+14.1) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TULN | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-11 |
| Home | 11-6 | 10-6 |
| Away | 2-8 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#76) | -6.5 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#99) | -2.28 (#327) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#96) | -2.96 (#312) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#179) | 0.390 (#302) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TULN | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.5% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 27.1% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 12.8% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 19.7% | 38.0% |
| FT Rate | 38.9% | 33.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.3% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 64.5% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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