Betting Lines
| Spread | UCI -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | UCI -138 TOL +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCI +6 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | UCI -3.4 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.3 (-4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCI -2.4 (+3.6) | 147.7 (+0.3) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCI -2.5 (+3.5) | 147.5 (+0.5) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCI -2.3 (+3.7) | 148.6 (-0.6) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCI -2.5 (+3.5) | 148.7 (-0.7) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCI | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 14-4 |
| Home | 13-0 | 12-3 |
| Away | 8-9 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 80.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#55) | 4.2 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#63) | 1.04 (#98) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.13 (#72) | 0.47 (#157) |
| RPI | 0.611 (#58) | 0.542 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCI | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 51.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 44.4% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 28.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 57.7% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 57.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 24.7% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 64.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 15.8% |
Game Analysis
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