Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | PITT +188 FLA -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +15 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | PITT -10.8 (-25.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.8 (-5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -6.0 (-21.0) | 154.9 (+2.1) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -6.0 (-21.0) | 157.0 (+0.0) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -5.8 (-20.8) | 156.0 (+1.0) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -6.1 (-21.1) | 156.9 (+0.1) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-5 | 14-1 |
| Away | 7-4 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 7-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 85.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 79.2 |
| Massey | 17.6 (#8) | 6.7 (#71) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#70) | 0.53 (#138) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.12 (#73) | 0.78 (#137) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#154) | 0.564 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 50.2 | 45.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.2 | 18.8 |
| AST / TO | 2.09 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.8% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 12.0% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 41.9% | 50.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.2% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 82.9% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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