Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | SF -1200 PFW +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +16 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | SF -5.6 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (-12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -5.2 (+10.8) | 139.1 (-3.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -4.6 (+11.4) | 143.1 (-7.1) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -4.0 (+12.0) | 143.5 (-7.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -4.4 (+11.6) | 144.7 (-8.7) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-2 | 11-5 |
| Away | 6-6 | 10-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 78.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 72.9 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#81) | 7.8 (#52) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#202) | 2.70 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#174) | 4.04 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#277) | 0.613 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 38.8% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 16.5% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 25.7% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.8% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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