Betting Lines
| Spread | WIS -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | SMU +250 WIS -350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIS +8 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | WIS -2.8 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.1 (-13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIS -2.6 (-5.4) | 138.1 (-8.1) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIS -1.0 (-7.0) | 141.0 (-11.0) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIS -1.1 (-6.9) | 142.4 (-12.4) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIS -1.3 (-6.7) | 142.2 (-12.2) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 14-3 |
| Away | 5-8 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 70.0 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#92) | 8.0 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#115) | 0.55 (#136) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#94) | 1.19 (#113) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#77) | 0.522 (#156) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 42.8 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.1% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 77.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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