Betting Lines
| Spread | KSU -26.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | KSU -20000 CARK +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KSU +44 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | KSU -14.9 (+29.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.0 (+4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KSU -15.7 (+28.3) | 149.2 (+6.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KSU -10.9 (+33.1) | 145.6 (+10.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KSU -11.5 (+32.5) | 148.7 (+7.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KSU -10.7 (+33.3) | 150.7 (+5.3) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KSU | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-11 |
| Home | 14-3 | 5-10 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 80.3 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#157) | -7.3 (#305) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#148) | -3.62 (#358) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#182) | -5.24 (#357) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#102) | 0.309 (#348) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KSU | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.4 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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