Betting Lines
| Spread | NEB -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | NEB -250 DUQ +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEB +10 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | NEB -10.7 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.0 (+19.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEB -8.6 (+1.4) | 148.5 (+19.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEB -9.1 (+0.9) | 144.8 (+23.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEB -9.5 (+0.5) | 145.8 (+22.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEB -10.2 (-0.2) | 145.1 (+22.9) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEB | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 18-1 | 13-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#34) | 6.2 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.31 (#36) | 1.28 (#77) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.97 (#27) | 1.98 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.599 (#62) | 0.570 (#86) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEB | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 47.0 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 37.4% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.1% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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