Betting Lines
| Spread | UTA -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | UTA -450 ALCN +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTA +13 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | UTA -12.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.4 (-5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTA -7.2 (+5.8) | 149.5 (+1.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -9.1 (+3.9) | 149.0 (+2.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTA -8.2 (+4.8) | 151.2 (-0.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTA -8.5 (+4.5) | 151.4 (-0.4) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTA | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-3 | 7-3 |
| Away | 5-10 | 7-14 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 77.9 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#212) | -7.2 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.00 (#182) | -2.16 (#324) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#185) | -3.68 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#155) | 0.359 (#328) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTA | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 43.7 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 43.4% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 59.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.1% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 34.5% |
Game Analysis
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