Betting Lines
| Spread | HOF -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | HPU +163 HOF -213 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOF +5 | 189 | Lost |
| Massey | HOF -3.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.1 (+29.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOF -4.1 (-0.9) | 148.0 (+41.0) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOF -3.8 (-1.2) | 151.4 (+37.6) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOF -2.8 (-2.2) | 152.1 (+36.9) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOF -3.1 (-1.9) | 152.5 (+36.5) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 12-6 |
| Home | 16-1 | 11-2 |
| Away | 7-5 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.1 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#114) | 6.8 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#153) | 0.89 (#106) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#125) | 2.50 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.422 (#273) | 0.562 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 38.0% | 15.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 9.3% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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