Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | USF -400 ME +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ME +11 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | USF -10.3 (-21.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -6.8 (-17.8) | 130.6 (-1.6) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -7.8 (-18.8) | 133.2 (-4.2) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USF -7.9 (-18.9) | 133.8 (-4.8) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -7.9 (-18.9) | 134.0 (-5.0) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | ME |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 7-9 |
| Home | 15-3 | 8-4 |
| Away | 8-4 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#143) | -1.8 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.77 (#309) | -0.45 (#221) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.02 (#316) | -0.67 (#222) |
| RPI | 0.353 (#331) | 0.440 (#248) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | ME |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 25.8% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 28.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 34.7% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.8% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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