Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | ND -800 UMES +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +20 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | ND -9.9 (+10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (-9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -6.7 (+13.3) | 141.4 (-11.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -5.8 (+14.2) | 138.5 (-8.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -7.1 (+12.9) | 138.8 (-8.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -7.5 (+12.5) | 142.0 (-12.0) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 9-20 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 4-10 |
| Home | 9-8 | 9-4 |
| Away | 2-10 | 0-15 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.0 | 62.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 73.1 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#302) | -10.0 (#331) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#218) | -1.24 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#212) | -2.22 (#292) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#174) | 0.448 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 22.3% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 43.1% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 62.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 33.2% |
Game Analysis
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