Betting Lines
| Spread | CLE -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | CLE -250 ETSU +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLE +2 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | CLE -11.7 (-9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (+2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLE -8.6 (-6.6) | 139.4 (+2.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLE -8.0 (-6.0) | 140.8 (+1.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CLE -8.6 (-6.6) | 141.4 (+0.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLE -9.1 (-7.1) | 140.8 (+1.2) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLE | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-10 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#155) | -3.9 (#247) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#149) | -0.36 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#166) | -0.67 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#103) | 0.485 (#198) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLE | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 44.3% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 63.1% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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