Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | INST -275 PEPP +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +8 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | INST -10.3 (-2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.4 (+12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -6.6 (+1.4) | 155.3 (+16.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -7.0 (+1.0) | 153.9 (+18.1) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -7.8 (+0.2) | 154.2 (+17.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -6.1 (+1.9) | 155.2 (+16.8) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 5-11 |
| Home | 16-1 | 9-8 |
| Away | 9-4 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.7 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#32) | -0.1 (#172) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#121) | -2.34 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#114) | -4.35 (#344) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#129) | 0.332 (#340) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.8% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 43.4% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 2.18 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 63.7% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 12.5% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 19.4% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 78.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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