Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | FRES +163 JMU -213 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +31 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | JMU -10.5 (-20.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.8 (-11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -8.3 (-22.7) | 155.3 (+3.7) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -6.3 (-24.7) | 158.8 (+0.2) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -6.8 (-24.2) | 161.0 (-2.0) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -9.5 (-21.5) | 161.6 (-2.6) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 32-4 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 15-3 |
| Home | 7-9 | 14-1 |
| Away | 3-9 | 12-2 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 81.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#190) | 9.6 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#167) | 3.45 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#187) | 4.66 (#15) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#222) | 0.743 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.1% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 44.4% | 38.8% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.7% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 23.3% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 34.2% |
Game Analysis
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