Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | ARK -275 STAN +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +3 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -4.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.6 (-13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -2.8 (+0.2) | 159.7 (-8.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -2.2 (+0.8) | 156.0 (-5.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -1.7 (+1.3) | 158.0 (-7.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -2.1 (+0.9) | 159.7 (-8.7) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-6 | 10-6 |
| Away | 2-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#111) | -0.7 (#184) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#248) | -0.22 (#204) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.83 (#277) | -0.76 (#229) |
| RPI | 0.388 (#305) | 0.465 (#221) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 49.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 2.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 12.6% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 36.0% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 14.3% |
Game Analysis
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