Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | ORST +1000 BAY -2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +16 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | BAY -14.6 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.9 (+1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -14.9 (-1.1) | 157.2 (+2.8) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -10.6 (-5.4) | 154.3 (+5.7) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -10.6 (-5.4) | 152.8 (+7.2) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -12.2 (-3.8) | 156.0 (+4.0) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORST | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 11-7 |
| Home | 12-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 1-9 | 4-5 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 71.1 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#237) | 11.2 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#117) | 2.52 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.71 (#93) | 3.90 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#138) | 0.634 (#38) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORST | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 43.1% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 40.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 14.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 41.7% |
| FT Rate | 34.5% | 44.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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