Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.0 Over |
| Money | SJU -170 MICH +143 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +16 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | SJU -6.0 (-22.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.3 (-1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -4.6 (-20.6) | 155.9 (+6.1) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -4.6 (-20.6) | 154.7 (+7.3) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 3-17 |
| Home | 11-4 | 5-10 |
| Away | 6-7 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L9 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 79.0 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#147) | 6.8 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#135) | 0.47 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#130) | 0.65 (#136) |
| RPI | — | 0.438 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.5% | 54.9% |
| 3PT% | 50.0% | 40.4% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 18.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.8% | 62.8% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 56.2% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 16.7% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 44.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 60.0% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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