Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | PSU +160 USC -192 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +2 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | USC -5.5 (+3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.4 (-9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -3.9 (+1.9) | 154.8 (-2.8) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -6.0 (+4.0) | 152.9 (-0.9) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -5.5 (+3.5) | 153.6 (-1.6) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -6.2 (+4.2) | 154.5 (-2.5) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2025 | USC 92 – 67 PSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 7-13 |
| Home | 9-8 | 9-7 |
| Away | 2-9 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.3 | 78.4 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#132) | 10.8 (#52) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#140) | 2.50 (#35) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#153) | 2.86 (#44) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#176) | 0.594 (#43) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 34.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.6% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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