Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | TAR -250 PFW +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +1 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | TAR -3.9 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (-3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -4.5 (-5.5) | 148.0 (-3.0) | 70% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | TAR -4.8 (-5.8) | 146.6 (-1.6) | 72% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML | TAR -5.5 (-6.5) | 146.0 (-1.0) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML ★ | TAR -5.4 (-6.4) | 147.9 (-2.9) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-4 | 11-5 |
| Away | 10-5 | 10-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 78.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 72.9 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#135) | 1.5 (#146) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#90) | 0.04 (#168) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#99) | 0.00 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#76) | 0.489 (#196) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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